Nickel dim3
In fact, short of 21 personnel, unconventional matchups perform well compared to more typical packages, if not outperforming the conventional defensive matchup outright. The past three years of data pours water on the seeds planted in my mind from watching the NBA - it wouldn’t kill teams to consider playing the tendency via personnel over matching bodies. Unconventional PersonnelĮPA/Play Difference in Conventional vs. Personnel Matchup Data: 2018-2020 NFL Averages Offensive Personnel vs. If there’s a clear tell in tendency or performance, there may be an opportunity for success on the margins by playing tendency via personnel. The run/pass tendency in each personnel grouping is an important context, as well, when considering whether it’s rational to defend the play instead of the personnel. With that in mind, I wanted to examine whether teams were being punished in situations where they decided to play unconventional personnel groupings - be them bigger or smaller - against an offense. This lends to the idea that coaches fundamentally believe that defense is about matching bodies. In the same span, in spite of returns of -.032 expected points added (EPA) per play, dime defensive structures are still treated as specialty packages, being used only at an average of 9% on first and second downs. Teams traditionally use this personnel on obvious passing downs, with 43% usage on third-and-long (7-10) over the past three years. Defense is about matching up against the tendencies, tactics and team makeup of the offense, given the game situation.īut, like playing small ball, there come times in a game, and throughout a season, where it’s appropriate to lean harder into creating certain matchups or playing a tendency or getting the best 11 guys on the field for that moment in time.ĭefensively, the football equivalent is playing with dime personnel - six defensive backs. These factors, as much as it stings to admit, are rarely - if ever - within a defensive coordinator's control. Strategically, defensive football can be visualized as a flowchart with an exponential amount of factors and subfactors that influence personnel and play calling. It’s not much at all about what’s new on defense, and while “nickel is the new base” flows better phonetically than “11 personnel is the new 21 personnel,” the truth is that any evolution on defense is reflective of the changes made by the offense.Ĭonventionally, a defense isn’t constructed independently of an offense.
There’s power in the phrase because it’s supported by the numbers (over 58% of all snaps from 2018 to 2020), but it collapses under its own weight. If I got paid every time I heard the phrase, “nickel is the new base” in football, I’d have a hard time carrying all the coins. This is the tug of war of aggressively creating mismatches versus playing what’s best, given the situation.Īt the core of understanding, any sport is an issue of matchups. When it’s not, offenses punish these lineups at the rim and on the backboard. When small ball is clicking defensively, it's about switching and swarming, taking air space away from the offense and forcing the ball away from the best scorers. In hoops, the big buzzword is playing “small ball,” using a conventional perimeter player in place of the traditional big man. It sounds familiar to what we hear every NFL offseason, as data is reviewed and compared to recent history to discover trends and talking points therein. What I’ve found most compelling is the constant debate about personnel usage. I love that high level defensive basketball resembles man-match coverages in football. But being wired to consume all competition through the lens of the sport I know best and see most, I can’t help but notice some of the similarities on the defensive side of the ball. At a surface-level viewing experience, very little in a basketball game would inspire comparison to football.